The opening two rounds of the MotoGP World Championship have been intriguing for many different reasons, not least for the hugely contrasting fortunes of Honda and Ducati at Qatar and Jerez. Honda came into the season without seeming to have a clear idea of which way they were going with their new engine and chassis and it looked like Dani Pedrosa, and in particular Nicky Hayden, still didn’t have confidence in the new package. Meanwhile over at Ducati, at least for Casey Stoner, things couldn’t have gone better in the opening round and he was able to dominate the whole weekend, leaving the pack trailing in the race to give an ominous signal of intent for his title defence.

Between Qatar and Jerez, however, the turnaround in fortune could not have been more dramatic for the Italian factory. Not only did Casey struggle to find any kind of set-up, qualifying in seventh place, but the other three machines ridden by Marco Melandri, Toni Elias and Sylvain Guintoli were all back on the final row. Casey’s front-end problems continued into the race and his result has forced Ducati to take a look at the bigger picture. When Casey is doing well it papers over the cracks but now they have to listen to all four riders and really try to make sure that the Desmosedici GP8 is developed into a more adaptable machine.

Jerez was also a problematic weekend for Bridgestone and I think it was probably the first time I’d heard their riders complaining about problems with the front tyre. In fact, the Bridgestone front is famous for its outstanding feedback and that is usually the thing a rider initially notices when riding on Bridgestones for the first time. At Jerez I think there were five crashes by Bridgestone riders losing the front, which is unheard of. To be fair we saw a lot of Michelin guys losing the front too and as much as anything else that is a sign of the way riders have to push these 800cc machines in the corners in the hunt for those vital extra thousandths of a second.

Honda’s turnaround between the two races was the opposite to Ducati and an example of how quickly things can change in racing. Whilst last year was a disaster for them, it is important to remember that they had six brand new bikes on the grid, as well as providing an extra engine for Team KR. Now it seems HRC are focusing their efforts on the factory team as opposed to trying to provide blanket support to a third of the grid and both Dani and Nicky are benefiting from swift and responsive development in both the chassis and engine. For Dani to dominate at Jerez in the way he did, with Nicky a very encouraging fourth, was testament to the hard work they are putting in between races and it looks like being a much more successful year for the Japanese factory.

Dani has made a great start to the season and leads the championship going into the second round but in my opinion there are still a couple of questions marks over him as a title contender. We have seen how he can dominate a race from the front – it was a trademark of his career through the 125 and 250 classes, as well as MotoGP – but can he still win races after making a bad start or coming through from deeper on the grid? Can he still win races if it starts raining? Dani needs to provide the right answers to those questions if he is going to challenge Casey this year and Estoril, with its hugely unpredictable weather, could be his first chance to do that.

It was at this circuit last year that we saw the first real head-to-head battle between the three men we expect to challenge seriously for the title this season: Dani, Casey and Valentino. If you throw the rookies like Jorge Lorenzo and James Toseland, who should have Yamaha’s updated pneumatic valve engine, into the mix then we could be in for a really exciting weekend this time around. Michelin have made a great start to 2008 and they dominated at this track last year, whilst Bridgestone struggled. However,

Bridgestone have since nominated it as a test circuit so it will be interesting to see if they have made any progress. With none of the MotoGP riders having been here in preseason (unlike Jerez and Qatar) it is a clean slate for everybody and should give us a much clearer idea of what to expect this season.

Randy