On Saturday night after the race at Assen I was asked by an Italian journalist who I thought would win the MotoGP World Championship. After his second win in just six days the name that sprung to the front of my mind was Casey Stoner, but the truth is that if he’d asked me after the race in Barcelona I’d have probably said Dani Pedrosa, and if he’d asked me after the race at Mugello I’d have said Valentino Rossi.

Casey’s performances in the last two rounds have proved that he is at exactly the same level as he was last season - the only thing preventing him scoring the same results was the package underneath him. The change in the electronics that Ducati made in the Barcelona test were all that were needed to elevate Casey back into a three-way battle for the title.

Stoner, Rossi and Pedrosa are on such a similarly consistent and high level right now in terms of ability that the variables that determine a race outcome lie almost purely in the performance of the bike and tyres. It seems that each track we go to suits one of the Ducati-Bridgestone, Honda-Michelin or Yamaha-Michelin combinations better than the other two and when the rider completes the circle they become virtually unbeatable.

Pretty much from first free practice on it has been clear that nobody could have beaten Dani at Barcelona, nobody could have beaten Rossi at Mugello and nobody could have beaten Stoner at Donington. There is a slight question mark about Assen because of the lap times Rossi was doing after crashing but we will never truly know if he could have challenged Stoner. Personally I suspect not.

Over the past two seasons before this one we often saw Valentino overriding the Yamaha and crashing. Last Saturday he crashed because he didn’t want to let Casey escape at the front. Even though he was running near the front he knew he couldn’t afford to concede two seconds to Casey in one lap because the current margins are so slim that it could take him ten laps to recover that advantage – even on a good day.

In the press you constantly hear the riders talking about the setting and it is becoming even more crucial that they start out on the right foot on a Friday. It is incredible to see how hard Stoner pushes himself as soon as the gate drops in FP1 and the technological possibilities offered by a modern MotoGP machine mean that the engineers need all the available time to dial the electronics into every corner on the circuit. Adverse weather during practice at the majority of recent rounds has made this even more critical and the likes of Jorge Lorenzo and James Toseland, who came out strongly at the start of the season, have suffered for it.

It has been tough for Lorenzo, not least because of the physical and psychological effects of his recent injuries, but he is one of the riders who can break up that top three when everything is in place. Perhaps the only other man in the field at the moment with that ability and package is Nicky Hayden, who has been given a huge boost by the pneumatic engine. Nicky has been in desperate need of the horsepower, as much as he has the extra confidence, and with two tracks coming up that he loves and has traditionally done well at we can look forward to more of the form that should have earned him a podium at Assen.

I truly hope those two can mix things up because at the moment the racing is suffering. Kawasaki and Suzuki are struggling to race against a bunch of standard Hondas and need to come up with some major improvements over the summer if they want to get back in the game. The next two rounds and the work they can do during the summer break will be crucial.

Randy